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Track of 2006 Storms


Track of 2005 Storms




FROM DR. WILLIAM GRAY. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2008
   
CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE UPDATED FORECAST FROM DR. WILLIAM GRAY. 

Below information is from Dr. Gray Web Site. Click above link for more information.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2008


Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000

Climatology (in parentheses)

Issue Date

8 December 7th 2007 forecast for 2008



Issue Date

9 April 2008
                       Issue Date

3 June 2008

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)

13


15
15

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)

60


80
80

Hurricanes (H) (5.9)

7


8
8

Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)

30


40
40

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)

3


4
4

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)

6


9
9

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)

115


150
150

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)

125


160
160

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century 52%)

2) U.S. East coastline including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century 31%)

3) Gulf Cost from Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Summary verification of the authors’ seven previous years of seasonal forecasts for Atlantic TC activity between 2001-2007. From Dr. Gray Web Site


 

2001

 

7 Dec. 2000

Update

6 April

Update

7 June

Update

7 August

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

5

6

7

7

9

No. of Named Storms

9

10

12

12

15

No. of Hurricane Days

20

25

30

30

27

No. of Named Storm Days

45

50

60

60

63

Hurr. Destruction Potential

65

65

75

75

71

Intense Hurricanes

2

2

3

3

4

Intense Hurricane Days

4

4

5

5

5

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

90

100

120

120

142

 

 

2002

 

7 Dec. 2001

Update

5 April

Update

31 May

Update

7 August

Update

2 Sept.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

8

7

6

4

3

4

No. of Named Storms

13

12

11

9

8

12

No. of Hurricane Days

35

30

25

12

10

11

No. of Named Storm Days

70

65

55

35

25

54

Hurr. Destruction Potential

90

85

75

35

25

31

Intense Hurricanes

4

3

2

1

1

2

Intense Hurricane Days

7

6

5

2

2

2.5

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

140

125

100

60

45

80

 

 

2003

 

6 Dec. 2002

Update

4 April

Update

30 May

Update

6 August

Update

3 Sept.

Update

2 Oct.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

8

8

8

8

7

8

7

No. of Named Storms

12

12

14

14

14

14

14

No. of Hurricane Days

35

35

35

25

25

35

32

No. of Named Storm Days

65

65

70

60

55

70

71

Hurr. Destruction Potential

100

100

100

80

80

125

129

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

3

3

3

2

3

Intense Hurricane Days

8

8

8

5

9

15

17

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

140

140

145

120

130

155

173

 

 

2004

 

5 Dec. 2003

Update

2 April

Update

28 May

Update

6 August

Update

3 Sept.

Update

1 Oct.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

7

8

8

7

8

9

9

No. of Named Storms

13

14

14

13

16

15

14

No. of Hurricane Days

30

35

35

30

40

52

46

No. of Named Storm Days

55

60

60

55

70

96

90

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

3

3

5

6

6

Intense Hurricane Days

6

8

8

6

15

23

22

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

125

145

145

125

185

240

229

 

 

2005

 

3 Dec. 2004

Update

1 April

Update

31 May

Update

5 August

Update

2 Sept.

Update

3 Oct.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

6

7

8

10

10

11

14

No. of Named Storms

11

13

15

20

20

20

26

No. of Hurricane Days

25

35

45

55

45

40

48

No. of Named Storm Days

55

65

75

95

95

100

116

Intense Hurricanes

3

3

4

6

6

6

7

Intense Hurricane Days

6

7

11

18

15

13

16.75

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

115

135

170

235

220

215

263

 

 

2006

 

6 Dec. 2005

Update

4 April

Update

31 May

Update

3 August

Update

1 Sept.

Update

3 Oct.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

9

9

9

7

5

6

5

No. of Named Storms

17

17

17

15

13

11

10

No. of Hurricane Days

45

45

45

35

13

23

21

No. of Named Storm Days

85

85

85

75

50

58

53

Intense Hurricanes

5

5

5

3

2

2

2

Intense Hurricane Days

13

13

13

8

4

3

2

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

195

195

195

140

90

95

85


 

2007

 

8 Dec. 2006

Update

3 April

Update

31 May

Update

3 August

Update

4 Sept.

Update

2 Oct.

 

Obs.

No. of Hurricanes

7

9

9

8

7

7

6

No. of Named Storms

14

17

17

15

15

17

14

No. of Hurricane Days

35

40

40

35

35.50

20

11.25

No. of Named Storm Days

70

85

85

75

71.75

53

33.50

Intense Hurricanes

3

5

45

4

4

3

72

Intense Hurricane Days

8

11

11

10

12.25

8

5.75

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity

140

185

185

160

162

127

94





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